Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
