Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
